I-Cymber Metal Trading Co., Ltd. – umbono wesikhathi esiphakathi wemakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-aluminium alloy 2026–2030

I-Cymber Metal Trading Co., Ltd.(okuzobizwa ngokuthi “i-Cyber”) muva nje ishicileleUmbiko Wesikhathi Esimaphakathi Wemakethe Yomhlaba Wonke Ye-Aluminium Alloyesihlanganisa isikhathi sika-2026-2030. Umbiko uphetha ngokuthi, ngemuva kweminyaka emihlanu yokwanda okusheshayo kokuhlinzekwa okunezinhlobonhlobo zezidingo zokusetshenziswa kokugcina, imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-aluminium alloy izophuma kancane kancane ebhalansini evulekile yangaphambilini eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo futhi ingene emjikelezweni omusha obonakala ngokulinganisela kabusha kokuhlinzekwa kanye nokwakhiwa kabusha kwesakhiwo sokusabalala kwentengo.

I. Uhlangothi Lokunikezela: Ukwehla Kokwengezwa Kwamandla Amasha, Ijika Lezindleko Elihambayo Liya Phambili

Kusukela ngo-2021 kuya ku-2025, ukwengezwa kwamandla e-aluminium amasha ayisisekelo e-China, e-India, eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, naseMpumalanga Ephakathi kudlule amathani ayizigidi ezingu-12 ngonyaka, okwandisa amandla okusebenza emhlabeni wonke afinyelela cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-150. Nokho, kusukela ngo-2026, amaphrojekthi ase-greenfield angabonakala azoncipha kakhulu. Ukuhlinzekwa okuyinhloko okuqhubekayo kuzokhawulelwa enanini elincane lamaphrojekthi okuqalisa kabusha noma okwandisa asevele evunyelwe, kanti ukukhula kwamandla onyaka wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kuye kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.5-2.5.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ushintsho oluhlelekile olukhuphukayo emazingeni entengo yamandla, ukuqaliswa okusemthethweni kweIndlela Yokulungisa Umngcele Wekhabhoni (i-CBAM), kanye nokujula kwezinguquko zemakethe kagesi eShayina kuzonyusa kakhulu izindleko eziphelele zamandla amancane. Ngokusho kwezilinganiso zikaCymber, izindleko ezingama-90% ku-curve yezindleko ze-aluminium eyinhloko yomhlaba wonke ngemuva kuka-2027 kulindeleke ukuthi zikhuphuke ngo-18%–25% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024, okuholela ekwehleni okuphawulekayo kokunwebeka kokunikezwa kwamandla kagesi.

II. Uhlangothi Lwesidingo: Ukwehluka Phakathi Kwemikhakha Yendabuko Neyasafufusa, Kodwa Ukuqina Okuphelele Kusalokhu Kunjalo

Kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2030, ukusetshenziswa okubonakalayo komhlaba wonke kwe-aluminium alloys kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzogcina izinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiwe (i-CAGR) elingu-2.8%–3.2%, eliqhutshwa ikakhulukazi yizigaba ezintathu ezinkulu ezilandelayo:

1. Ezokuthutha Ezilula (Izimoto Zabagibeli + Izimoto Zebhizinisi):
   Njengoba kuzuza ngokwanda okuqhubekayo kokungena kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla emhlabeni jikelele, isidingo seshidi le-aluminium alloy, i-strip, kanye ne-foil yezinhlelo zokusebenza zezimoto kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngesilinganiso sonyaka esingu-6.5%–7.5%. Ukusetshenziswa okusha okuqongelelekayo kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2030 kulinganiselwa cishe kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-8.5, okwenza kube yimbangela eyinhloko yesidingo esiqhubekayo.
2. I-Photovoltaics kanye ne-Energy Storage:
   Isidingo samafreyimu e-aluminium, izakhiwo zokufaka, kanye ne-foil yebhethri sisalokhu siqinile, kanti kulindeleke ukuthi kube ne-CAGR engaba ngu-5% kusukela ngo-2026 kuya ku-2030. Ukukhula kuzobonakala kakhulu ezimakethe ezingaphandle kweShayina.
3. Imikhakha Yendabuko (Ukwakha, Ukupakisha, Amakhebula Kagesi, njll.):
   Ukukhula kulezi zindawo kuzoncipha kufike ku-1%–2% ngonyaka, kodwa isisekelo sabo esikhulu sizoqhubeka nokunikeza ukwesekwa okuzinzile okuyisisekelo.

Sekukonke, ukusetshenziswa okubonakalayo komhlaba wonke kwama-aluminium alloys kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele amathani ayizigidi eziyi-108-112 (okulingana ne-aluminium eyinhloko) ngo-2030, okumele ukwanda kwamathani angaba yizigidi eziyi-18-22 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024.

III. Izitokwe kanye namanani: Umjikelezo Wokususa Isitokwe Cishe Uzoqala ku-Q2 2026

Imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-aluminium alloy izohlala esigabeni sokuqongelela impahla kuze kube ngu-2024-2025, kanti izinqolobane zokushintshana kanye nezingaphandle kokushintshaniswa kulindeleke ukuthi zifinyelele ezingeni elilingana namathani ayizigidi eziyi-11-12. Njengoba ijubane lokwengezwa kokuhlinzekwa okusha lehla kakhulu ngenkathi ukuthuthwa kanye nesidingo samandla amasha singena esigabeni sokusheshisa, i-Cymber ilindele ukuthi izinqolobane zomhlaba wonke zizoshintsha kusukela ekuqongeni ziye ekudonsweni kusukela kwikota yesibili ka-2026, kanti umjikelezo wokususwa kwesitoko ungase uhlale kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2028.

Ngokuphikisana nalesi simo, isikhungo samandla adonsela phansiIntengo ye-aluminium yezinyanga ezintathu ye-LMEkulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke kancane kancane kusukela ku-USD 2,200–2,400 ngethani. Isilinganiso sentengo esiphakathi kuka-2027–2028 kulindeleke ukuthi sibe se-Ama-USD 2,700–3,000 ngethaniububanzi. Ngokunjalo, isilinganisoIntengo yendawo yaseNingizimu Chinaemakethe yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi ibe yi-RMB 19,500–22,000 ngethani. Amaphrimiyamu e-alloy kanye nemali yokucubungula imikhiqizo yeshidi, i-strip, kanye ne-foil cishe azothola ukwesekwa okuqinile phakathi kokuqina kwezisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kwempahla.